Is Bitcoin Mining Still Profitable? How to Do the Math

Post-halving, the block subsidy is 3.125 BTC. Roughly 144 blocks are mined per day, so the network emits about 450 BTC daily plus fees. Your expected share is simply your fraction of global hashrate.

The formula

• Network hashrate = difficulty × 2³² ÷ 600 seconds
• Your BTC/day = (your hashrate ÷ network hashrate) × 144 × 3.125 × (1 − pool fee)
• Daily profit = BTC/day × price − (watts ÷ 1000) × 24 × electricity price

Example: a 200 TH/s machine drawing 3,500 W at $0.06/kWh. Power cost is $5.04/day. Whether that leaves profit depends entirely on difficulty and price — which is why our calculator pulls both live and lets you edit them.

The two assumptions that break miners

First, difficulty is not constant: it adjusts every 2,016 blocks (~two weeks) and has historically trended up as new hardware ships. Second, price crashes hit revenue while power bills stay fixed. A machine profitable at $100,000 BTC can be underwater at $60,000.

• Stress-test at price −30% and difficulty +20%. Still profitable? You have margin of safety.
• Payback periods beyond 18-24 months carry real halving risk — the subsidy drops to 1.5625 BTC around 2028.
• Below ~$0.05/kWh electricity is where mining stays robust through cycles.

Run the numbers before you buy anything

Our mining calculator fetches live difficulty and price, computes daily BTC, power cost, profit and hardware payback days. Change any assumption and watch the payback period move — then decide with numbers, not hype.